Balance Forecast

Watch the lowest point, not the end of the month

The end-of-month number is the one people look at and the least informative one on the screen. What matters is the lowest point between now and your next few paydays, because that is the day a payment fails.

Decide on a floor you never want to go under, enough to absorb a bill that comes in higher than you expected, and look for the first day the line drops below it. If it never does, your timing already works and the cushion is just protection against surprises.

What to do when the line dips

A dip found early is a scheduling problem, and scheduling problems have cheap solutions. Found late it is a fee. The earlier you see it, the more of these are still available:

• Move a bill. Many billers will change a due date if you ask, and pushing one payment past your next payday often closes the gap on its own.
• Move a flexible expense. Groceries, a planned purchase or an extra debt payment can usually wait a few days.
• Move money forward. A transfer timed for the day before the dip costs nothing when it is planned.
• Chase what you are owed. If a payment is due before the dip, a reminder now beats a late payment later.

A forecast is only as good as what you feed it

Four things make a projection wrong, and all of them are fixable. Bills that are not monthly get left out, so a forecast built from the last thirty days misses the insurance renewal. Credit cards get entered on the statement date instead of the due date. Transfers between your own accounts get counted as spending, which shows a dip that never happens.

The fourth is optimism. Put variable income in at the low end of what is realistic and expected payments on the day you will actually have them, not the day they were promised.

A five minute check on payday

A forecast is not something to watch daily. Checked every morning it becomes noise, and the decisions it informs do not change that fast. Once per pay period is enough, and payday is the natural moment because that is when the numbers move.

Three things are worth looking at. First, did the deposit land as expected, and for the amount expected. Second, has anything shifted: a bill that went up, a payment that has not cleared, a subscription that renewed at a new price. Third, and the only one that really matters, where is the lowest point between now and the next payday, and is it above your floor.

If it is, you are done and the rest of the fortnight needs no thought. If it is not, you have a fortnight of options rather than a surprise. That asymmetry, five minutes spent against a fee avoided, is the argument for keeping the thing current at all.

Keeping it honest

A forecast that is a month out of date is a picture, not a plan. Five minutes on payday updating what changed is enough to keep it worth trusting, which is why the app is the same calendar on the phone as on the web.

If you would rather not maintain the balances by hand, US bank connections through Plaid keep them current. They are read only, the app cannot move money, and you can disconnect at any time. Manual entry gives you exactly the same projection if you prefer it.

Try it on your own numbers

The trial is 14 days and the monthly plan does not ask for a card. See pricing.

Common questions

What is a balance forecast?

Your account balance projected forward from today. Each expected deposit and scheduled payment is applied on its own date, so you can see what the account will hold on any day ahead.

How far ahead does it go?

As far as you have income and expenses entered, which can be weeks, months or years. Recurring items carry forward on their own.

How accurate is it?

As accurate as what goes in. The usual causes of a wrong forecast are bills that are not monthly being left out, credit cards entered on the statement date rather than the due date, transfers counted as spending, and optimistic income.

Does it work if my income varies?

Yes. Put variable income in at the low end of what is realistic and expected payments on the date you will really have them. Planning commitments around a lean month rather than an average one is the point.

Can I get a forecast without connecting my bank?

Yes. Manual entry produces the same projection. Bank connections are optional, US only, read only, and can be disconnected whenever you want.